John Hussman with another provocative idea, which he attributes to Ray Dalio at Bridgewater:

In typical recessions, unemployment tends to be a lagging indicator, and the employment figures themselves tend to move up and down roughly in concert with the overall economy. In the current downturn, however, the unusually high debt burden and precariousness of mortgages among households creates a dynamic that we don’t usually observe.

Read the full article here.

unemployment